Decision Making

Richard B. Jones's 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk PDF

By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Learn how to follow the elemental features of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all wish to put off possibility from our decision-making, yet regrettably this target is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board resolution holds the facility to take on all the surprises existence throws at us. up to we strive to prevent them, destructive results will unavoidably ensue. . . occasionally. but there are belongings you can do to aid stack the deck on your prefer. You don't must be a statistician or mathematician to turn into knowledgeable in dealing with the future's uncertainty. 20% likelihood of Rain allows the reader to shape a powerful figuring out of probability that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the basic innovations of threat throughout the huge use of useful events to assist the reader practice what's discovered to a large choice of situations
  • Providing genuine illustrations of threat research, danger evaluate, and possibility administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in so much threat courses
  • Communicating advanced danger suggestions in an easy, transparent, and engaging demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case stories, from NASA and different industries, delivering the foundation for extra discussions and permitting the reader to work out real purposes of risk-based decision-making
  • From members to companies to govt enterprises, chance is the typical denominator. winning innovations for dealing with the future's uncertainty or danger could seem basic and easy at the floor, but they are often super complicated and refined. knowing the easiest how one can hire those multi-faceted strategies is necessary within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. lifestyles is actually a chain of decisions and 20% likelihood of Rain might actually help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, complicated, and shrinking world.

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    Extra info for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

    Sample text

    Once you start defining concrete outcomes, you move to a very obvious and specific list of things that must be done. Before the outcome conversation, they would have once again let the Sales GM go back to Europe and would have hoped for an increase in revenue. He might have tried new enterprise market­ ing programs or fine-tuned sales comp plans or incentives. —they easily created the list. When you define the outcome in a concrete enough way, the necessary actions just fall out. In this example the obvious actions were: • Hire a retail marketing person in Germany • Recruit the top four retail partners in Germany • Launch a partner marketing and business plan in Germany • Initiate campaigns in Germany • Recruit partner marketing experts in the UK and France • Identify the top enterprise salespeople and adjust quotas • Complete the sales force restructuring C02 01/25/2017 22 1:11:4 Page 22 M = THE MIDDLE 3.

    Once you have created this communication tool, use it over and over again. Pull it out every time you communicate about what you are doing. Update it and show the “You are here” dot moving to the right, and list the finished accomplish­ ments to the left of it. Keep the same future initiatives on the page. After people see this 20 or 100 times they will start to think two things: First, I guess we are making progress even though I can’t see it from my desk; and second, I guess we are serious about that stuff on the right because it’s not going away.

    This “above it all” approach is dangerous. Execution does not happen without leadership involvement. Period. TEAM: DON’T WAIT—START HELPING You can choose to wait, or you can choose to proactively help. You can choose to stay in the shadows and be invisible; you can choose to resist or undermine; or you can choose to step forward and help, and to be a bright spot moving the transformation forward. What strong personal leadership looks like at the beginning of the Middle is keeping yourself educated on the business drivers that are causing the need for this change in the first place.

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    20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones

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